Analysts Talk Blu-ray, But Should We Listen?

Posted by Tyler Pruitt on February 11, 2009 
Filed Under: Blu-ray, Format War

It should come as no surprise that some analysts are once again trying to marginalize Blu-ray’s recent success, while at the same time casting doubt about the formats long term growth potential. The analyst’s like to quote third party research surveys (does anyone trust these things?) that mention findings such as “just 62% of respondents were familiar with Blu-ray”. Where are they conducting these consumer studies at? Outside of retirement communities?

The real way to judge Blu-ray’s potential interest is asking respondents if theycurrently own or plan to buy an HDTV withing 2 years? If they respond “no”, then they are not even a potential Blu-ray buyer. We should be focusing on the percentage of HDTV owners that have interest in jumping into Blu-ray.

One other thing about industry analyst: Being a big Apple/Mac fan, I can attest to some of the outlandish and inaccurate things that industry analysts have predicted about Apple in the past 2-3 years. This, as well a some of the crazy analyst predictions that we saw during the HD DVD/Blu-ray Format War have convinced me that readers of this site, AVSforum, and others like it have more insight in to Blu-ray’s future than the analysts do.

Here is the audio of the 3 person analyst panel that was part of the BDA Press Event at CES 2009:

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One Response to “Analysts Talk Blu-ray, But Should We Listen?”

  1. popeye9000 on February 11th, 2009 6:32 am

    The folks that read AVSforum and this site are videophiles and audiophiles, and thus consumers of a niche that is hidef media.

    I count myself among those readers and have bought into HD DVD and Blu-ray, but I consider it only a niche much like laserdisc during the VHS era.

    I am comfortable with the fact that it may never amount to much over 10% of media sales. It could fail in a couple of years or it could last the more than 20 years that laserdisc did. I’m fine with that.

    From what I can tell from talking to the folks at work and my friends about it, most people just do not care about HDM.

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