Digital Downloads to Overtake Physical Media by 2017?

Posted by Mehar Gill on February 6, 2009 
Filed Under: Blu-ray, Downloads, Format War

Research firm SNL Kagan predicts 2017 will be the year Digital Distribution takes over physical media! The study goes on to claim DVD’s market share which currently stands at just over 97% will be lost to Blu-ray which take the market at 59.7% by 2014. Wade Holden of SNL Kagan had this to say,

“Blu-ray will be the driving force behind the video retail market throughout the next decade.The current economic climate, however, will slow the growth of this new format and likely keep it from reaching the heights that it may have in better times. VOD services will continue to improve in both technology and content over the next decade and begin to draw consumers away from Blu-ray and DVD by 2017.”

Bold claims, although we tend to disagree, by 2014 we predict a new physical competitor (Flash Media?) will already be on the market and be battling not only Blu-ray but DVD as well.

[Via Tech Radar]

Related posts:

  1. 10 Reasons Why Physical Media Owns!
  2. Playboy Phasing Out DVD, Going All Digital
  3. Warner Bros. Ends DVD Business in S. Korea, Focus Turns To Digital Downloads
  4. Digital Downloads Update September 26th 2008
  5. Digital Downloads Update November 2nd 2008


4 Responses to “Digital Downloads to Overtake Physical Media by 2017?”

  1. tom vinelli on February 6th, 2009 6:39 pm

    i read an aritice too on this subject and the take over of downloading will just start,not already have taken over,big difference! lets get the fact right!

  2. John Berger on February 7th, 2009 12:32 pm

    It’s not going to happen. Sorry. Until the vast majority of the surface of the earth has broadband access and until the studios get it through their heads that customers want the ability to play movies that they’ve bought on EVERY device that they own, the need/desire for physical media will always – always – ALWAYS take precedent.

    I can’t wait until the horror stories start to come out from the “downloadz RULEZ, discz SUX0RZ” crowd that their 2 TB hard drive completely tanked and they lost all of their downloads. Those of us with physical media can just re-rip the movies and not have to worry about DRM or transferring licenses, which was obviously stripped to get our movies to a hard drive in the first place. Not so easy for the “downloadz RULEZ” people.

  3. Charles on February 9th, 2009 10:39 am

    Arguments against

    1. Hollywood won’t go DRM free

    2. True HD quality downloads are WAY to slow (1080p sets have risen consumer expectations)

    3. HDrive Storage issues if each 1080p movie “only” clocked in at 10GB that’s 100 Movies on a TB HD. I know many casual movie watchers who have twice that amount of DVDs.

    Downloads may kill the rental industry but physical media is far from dead. Even if you we’re downloading a movie and wanted to back it up wouldn’t a BD-ROM be the perfect solution?

  4. Mehar Gill on February 9th, 2009 4:44 pm

    I understand one of the major attacking points when it comes to Digital Downloads is the “everyone needs access to broadband” argument, unfortunately it holds little value. A majority of countries who suffer from lack of broadband access also suffer from high piracy rates, they contribute very little to the physical media market share to begin with.

    Who said Digital Downloads taking over would mean quality on par or better then that of Blu Ray, HD DVD, etc? Unfortunately the “quality whore” is a niche market, the masses won’t care much about quality. If Digital Downloads ever pose such a threat players will be built dedicated to the medium.

    I’ve found DRM is only a hassle for those who know it exists, the PC gaming industry is a prime example of that, the most famous example being Spore where those complaining about DRM accounted for less then 5% of the general consensus.

    Don’t get me wrong, I love physical media, although I found the arguments stated in the comments were a bit one sided.

    @tom vinelli -


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